The Trouble With Being a Prophet

Much like half the people on the planet Earth (apparently) I have always been interested in American politics. I'm not entirely sure why that is; perhaps it is the dominance of American culture and media, perhaps it is because their top guy has the ability to blow up the world like some crazy super-villain, perhaps it is because American politics has just always seemed a lot more dynamic and variable when compared to our own moribund democracy. Regardless of the reason I have a lot of fun following American politics and have always enjoyed trying to predict the outcome.

The Author, aged 15
on that fateful morning

I definitely know where the enjoyment of prediction comes. I remember a hot and humid October morning in the Fullerton Hotel at the mouth of the Singapore River eating brunch with my family (and as far as I remember it) the great and good of Singapore. The year was 2004 and I remember that morning so clearly because it was one of the first times I managed to beat my Dad in an argument. He was of the firm opinion that there was no way that someone as dumb as George Bush could win the US election and that soon John Kerry would be in charge and everything would be right again. My opinion was that John Kerry was too smart and boring and that after (kind of) winning two wars in a row George Bush was too popular to lose. As history has shown I had won the argument and I was an addict.

Of course my greatest victory was still to come as 2 years later my A-Level politics lecturer stated that Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney would run for the presidency, I said that it would be Barack Obama vs John McCain and what’s more that Sarah Palin would be the republican choice for VP. When the rest of the world was amazed by the sudden appearance of Sarah Palin on the world stage and said that it was the sort of wildcard choice that no one could predict I could do nothing but be overcome by an almost unstoppable wave of smugness. I mean admittedly I had also thought that Obama would pick Montana governor Brian Schweitzer as his running mate but it was still a pretty good bet. I also thought that Obama would win but given the circumstances that was so certain that it doesn’t really count. I am pretty sure a sack of potatoes with a hat saying “not a republican” could have won in 2008.

Senator John McCain

But within a year of Obama’s inauguration I made my earliest US Presidential prediction yet. Obama could not win a second term, the economy could not recover, the wars could not be won, he could not justify the hope, he didn’t seem all that interested in the change. Not only that but he would not be up against Hank Hill’s dad but rather his opponent would Mitt Romney who was created in a secret Republican factory to be the ultimate evil president. He was the bad guy in every 80’s film and Obama wasn’t a winner, he was a plucky loser and unlike us Brits Americans always hate a loser no matter how plucky.

As the Republican primaries dragged on and became ever more ridiculous, as Mitt proceeded to take his left foot out of his mouth only to put his right foot in, as Clint Eastwood talked to a chair I had hope that maybe I would be proven wrong. Maybe the tedious mediocrity of Obama would actually manage to bring the sinister Republican tide to a halt. The sleazy Wall Street executive would be beaten in the dance off and the Democrats would save the youth rec centre. But then the first debate happened and Obama’s mediocrity failed to shine against the perfect mechanical onslaught of Romney’s Robotic Republicanism.

Although Obama continues to have a tiny lead his popularity is still falling precipitously in the polls and Election Day is moving ever closer. I can’t help but worry that my prophecy is going to come true and that the world will become slightly worse and that makes me think: am I to blame? Am I too good at this? If I predict something will it come true? Perhaps my confident prediction of the victory of darkness over light managed to put off enough yanks to turn the tide. I hope not, I hope Obama will pull through with a last minute victory. Maybe Biden will get him to do an awesome training montage or his dad’s ghostly head will appear in a cloud and give him strength.

Maybe Obama will lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote. That would be HILARIOUS.